Sightings – Page 11 – Modern Pterosaur

December 7, 2012May 14, 2014

Statistical Analysis of Sighting Data

I highly recommend this blog post:

We now have 74 sightings with wingspan estimates, up from the 57 that were analyzed about one year ago. The updated database includes the earlier sighting reports, as they were combined with the newer accumulations of information on such things as wingspans, time-of-day-or-night, presence or absence of a long tail, head crest, etc.

Whitcomb’s analysis is somewhat brief, with general concepts that show how the weight of evidence points to a lack of hoaxes for those sightings in which wingspan estimates were given. This could benefit from a closer perusal.

By the way, Whitcomb is open to requests for the original database, for those who would want to take the time to do their own analysis.

Getting back to wingspan estimates, the proposal by some antagonists, that hoaxes caused sighting reports, is countered by Whitcomb’s data on wingspan estimates. To understand this, it helps to know something about what type of pterosaur is often reported.

The long-tail to no-long-tail ratio is about twenty to one as follows:

long tail 41%
no long tail 2%
not specified 57%

This means that if many hoaxes had contaminated the data then those jokesters would need to be in one of the following categories:

Trying to convince people that basal pterosaurs were seen
Ignorantly including long tails in their hoaxes

If number one, the hoaxers would have given wingspans below about seven feet. But Whitcomb’s data clearly defeats that possibility, for the only impressive peak is more like eight to thirteen feet, and that peak is not extremely high, tapering gradually into those wingspans that are somewhat larger than wingspans of large birds. Number one is practically eliminated, for it would not have led to the data we have on wingspans.

Number two seems more likely, but a different problem presents itself. If jokesters had ignorantly promoted long-tailed pterosaur sightings, what would influence them in providing wingspan sizes? It would be large wingspans, probably over twenty feet, that they would have lied about, for three reasons:

Cause shock from a report of a huge size
Avoid the possibility of a bird-misidentification interpretation
Connect the hoax with popular science fiction movies and stories

No jokester would report seeing a modern pterosaur with a wingspan of eight or nine or ten feet. That’s too much like the size of large birds. Where’s the shock value in that lie? But it’s in that simple concept that we have a device for eliminating the number two category of jokester mentality. Here is part of Whitcomb’s data for wingspan sizes in feet:

6, 6, 6, 6

7, 7

8, 8, 8, 8, 8

9, 9, 9, 9

10, 10, 10, 10, 10.5

11, 11

12, 12, 12.5

13, 13, 13, 13

—

16, 16

17, 17, 17

—

20, 20, 20, 20, 20.5

21, 21.5

—

25, 25, 25, 25

—

The range from 8-13 feet is small, compared with the overall range from 1.3 to 46 feet, but see how many sightings have wingspan estimates from 8-13 feet inclusive: 23 sightings, which is 31% of all those in which wingspan was given numerically. That number, 23, eliminates the number two possibility for jokesters, for if they existed, they would not have given wingspan estimates of 8-13 feet.

Now we compare that five-foot range (8-13) to the five-foot range from 16-21 and see the difference: Only 12 sightings in that range, far fewer than the 23 sightings from 8-13 feet. I chose 16-21 because it is just above the wingspan size of large birds. When we go further up the wingspan size range, we see fewer and fewer sighting reports, which eliminates that kind of hoax potential. Nothing in the wingspan estimates makes any sense when we think about how hoaxes could have skewered the data.

I’m not preaching absolute purity from any hoax contamination in the data. I can’t say whether or not there is complete purity. But there could not be any major contamination. To be plain, there could have been one or two hoaxes among so many, but what would that mean? It would not have any influence on the numerous other sighting reports. Even so, I have not yet seen any evidence that even one of Whitcomb’s reports has any evidence of it being from any hoax.

I also recommend the following:

Tail flange and long tails

Supporting the Bible, yet respecting beliefs of those of various religions, "Searching for Ropens and Finding God" can appeal to many

Searching for Ropens and Finding God – true adventures that support the Bible

From page 181:

I had wondered why so many sightings are in daylight; ropens are nocturnal. Then I began finding clues, including reports of storms that sometimes pass through before sightings. Since a sighting in Georgia in 2008, I sometimes ask about the weather, including for the previous day or two before the sighting.

November 3, 2012May 14, 2014

Do Manta Rays Fly Over Land? No!

I said a lot about Mr. Drinnon’s Manta ray mania last year, including the stingray of Africa. I thought that we were through with that ridiculous proposal. I now see I was wrong about that. But I am sure that the concept is ridiculous. The most publicized accounts of appearances of modern pterosaurs demonstrate that they were nowhere near what fish would appear like when they jump out of water. Not only that, but sightings of those flying creatures are mostly over land, and the few that were over water show clear signs that they could not have been leaping fish.

Before going any further, I wish to acknowledge the concept of jumping Manta rays. Of course they could look shocking to a person in a boat who had never before seen such a fish, below or above the surface of the sea. But Mr. Drinnon misses the critical point, that the overall picture of pterosaur sightings could not have been jumping fishes.

I am of the strictest belief that fruitful scientific investigations require specific observations, not generalizations of imagination. With Manta rays launching themselves into the air, on some occasions, we can expect some surprised spectators. But we should not expect any of those persons to conclude that they had seen a modern pterosaur, regardless of a general similarity in wing shape. After all, when spectators saw the landing of the Space Shuttles, the general similarities of wing shapes did not cause those persons to believe that they had seen a pterosaur or a Manta ray. Overly general ideas should not be emphasized to the extreme.

Perth Sighting

Getting into the Perth sighting of 1997, we have many details. If I remember correctly, Mr. Drinnon mentioned this sighting some time ago, but I am sure he did not properly consider the significance of important details.

The Australian married couple were about half a mile inland, according to the words of the wife. That in itself almost kills any possibility that they had seen a Manta ray in the air. I’ll quote some of her words here.

“Whatever people may think, the fact remains that my husband and I both saw that creature. My husband, being a scientist, took in things from the sighting that I was far too amazed/stunned to take in.”

Now for the words of the husband, who had worked in a scientific field, at least up to the time of their interview.

I watched it as it approached. Soon I was able to determine that it was some sort of flying creature, and my first thought was that it must be some very large bird. I was very new to the area at the time and unfamiliar with the native creatures, so I pointed it out to [my wife], asking if she could see it.

By this time, its progress had brought it closer and while its shape did resemble a bird, I thought by now that from its apparent distance, it must be the largest bird I had ever witnessed. I would estimate that at this time it was about a quarter mile north of us and quite high. [My wife] and I had now stopped to watch it approach. Within a minute or so it had reached our position and was about 250 or 300 feet above us and slightly inland.

It is obvious that this Australian couple had not observed a Manta ray jumping out of the water, regardless of the shape of the creature’s wings.

Other Sightings of Modern Pterosaurs

Examples that repudiate the suggestion of Manta rays are so numerous as to demolish any confidence in that kind of misidentification hypothesis.

Eskin Kuhn, as a United States Marine in 1971, watched two “pterodactyls” fly from the sea, with a graceful flight that he observed for some time. He estimated they were about forty to a hundred feet high. Mr. Drinnon has been struck by some general aspect of wing shape, and given Kuhn’s sketch as if it were evidence for his Manta ray hypothesis. But look at the sketch in light of Mr. Kuhn’s words.

two pterosaurs sketched by eyewitness Eskin Kuhn

What difference does it make that there might be a general wing-shape resemblance to the general shape of a Manta ray? Mr. Kuhn did not see one creature just above the surface of the sea for three seconds. He saw two creatures flying together over land. He did not see one fish fall back into water but two flying creatures fly off together, over land.

I have had enough of this ludicrous hypothesis. If people want to believe Mr. Drinnon’s Manta ray hypothesis, that is their problem.

Jumping Manta ray Fish

In the nonfiction Live Pterosaurs in Australia and in Papua New Guinea, four sightings are given special attention for both high credibility and low possibility of misidentification

Leap of Faith or Leaping Fish?

They looked like the flying dinosaurs, I forget what they are called. They would fly towards the ship, then back out to sea, then fly together in tandem then make a sharp right, away from the ship and disappear into the night.

The "Bible of modern pterosaurs" book "Searching for Ropens and Finding God" - support the truth about these flying creatures

Non-fiction ropen book – Searching for Ropens and Finding God

From page 183:

I have not before nor since ever been so petrified in my life. You [know] how in scary movies you always want to yell at the protagonist ‘Run, you idiot! Run!’ because they never do and then they always die? I was frozen with fear just like they show in the movies. I felt incapable of moving my legs.

October 23, 2012

Modern Pterosaur in Hawaii

The number of reported sightings of modern pterosaurs in the Hawaiian Islands demands that we examine the reports and evaluate the possibility. Certainly nobody who thinks about it carefully will proclaim that if large pterosaurs lived in modern times none of them would be able to fly across an ocean. Butterflies have been reported to have been blown over some stretches of ocean, both Atlantic and Pacific. Some birds migrate over vaste distances across the earth.

I have been privileged to be given an eyewitness report of a sighting in 1970, northeast of Honolulu. I here give part of that report:

Grew up on the windward side of Oahu in Maunawili Valley. The valley I grew up in is a typical triple canopy rain forest with two mountain ranges, the Koolaus and Olomana mountain surrounding the valley. I believe I was around 12 years old at the time that I saw a Pterodactyl.

I step out of our house and walked just a short distance in our front yard when I looked up and saw the Pterodactyl flying (gliding) from the direction of the Koolaus towards Olomana.

I would estimate its height at about 100 feet using the tall Cook pine trees growing in my neighbor’s yard as my reference.

It was light brown in color with canvas like skin and absolutely no feathers. What really caught my attention was its “horn” protruding from the back of its head ( or as Duane Hodgkinson calls “an appendage”).

When it passed across to the right of me I then realized it was a living creature because it began to flap its wings and continued to flap its wings several times at about a two second interval between flaps.

Pterosaur in Hawaii

At first I thought it was something manmade because I thought it might be some type of a remote controlled Pterodactyl glider. The wing span (again an estimate) seemed to be about 30 (if not more) feet across. It was light brown in color with canvas like skin and absolutely no feathers. . . . When it passed across to the right of me I then realized it was a living creature because it began to flap its wings

Flying Creatures Like Pterosaurs in Hawaii

This was late in 1999, in what the soldiers called the “Kahuku range,” on the northeast side of Oahu. A bright full moon illuminated the flying creature, which had a long tail about 25% of the ”size of its body,” which I assume refers to the length, which one soldier estimated was 8-10 feet.